Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 30.140815 33.300261 36.810197 41.030022 46.007998 51.747524 58.945872
2025-07-20 25.155006 29.266767 34.214111 40.723534 49.250450 60.327696 76.329231
2025-07-27 22.176030 26.827749 32.781255 41.211715 53.300766 70.839523 100.062573
2025-08-03 19.782426 24.636925 31.147841 40.918542 56.021619 80.176226 126.334898
2025-08-10 17.948895 22.873236 29.731342 40.531516 58.346848 89.495246 157.687010
2025-08-17 16.625733 21.613245 28.792873 40.602473 61.305346 100.827199 200.917203
2025-08-24 15.422550 20.370708 27.686607 40.161922 63.200551 110.791260 249.743765
2025-08-31 14.423307 19.315196 26.718883 39.756515 65.013011 121.291525 311.972078
2025-09-07 13.564751 18.384932 25.831472 39.327596 66.647321 132.112803 391.373795
2025-09-14 12.857619 17.621580 25.123808 39.097813 68.622258 144.791262 503.946041
2025-09-21 12.169854 16.831889 24.290790 38.506135 69.663443 155.518865 636.454127
2025-09-28 11.971564 16.796630 24.712352 40.365851 76.827361 189.540953 1085.026906
2025-10-05 11.443404 16.200916 24.130832 40.190667 79.141821 209.686482 1604.492937
2025-10-12 10.994733 15.705982 23.684831 40.240014 82.117867 235.425068 2665.293599
2025-10-19 10.665659 15.386421 23.523080 40.870135 86.925547 274.629463 5921.338607
2025-10-26 10.252178 14.896289 23.004635 40.643774 89.233068 305.152926 14188.659993
2025-11-02 9.857453 14.413870 22.460786 40.286988 91.081340 336.418700 54592.883666
2025-11-09 9.546583 14.057484 22.126056 40.368513 94.405846 383.083041 NaN
2025-11-16 9.200977 13.620712 21.603180 39.936369 95.921805 421.016557 NaN
2025-11-23 8.884194 13.218056 21.117844 39.536264 97.478693 463.940827 NaN
2025-11-30 8.586959 12.835184 20.645136 39.111660 98.867007 510.372803 NaN
2025-12-07 8.329730 12.511342 20.268058 38.884079 100.984381 572.088466 NaN
2025-12-14 8.053435 12.140363 19.772588 38.297309 101.553310 620.400787 NaN